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GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-6) at ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3)
2011-01-14
Sportsbook.com Line/Total: Atlanta -2.5 & 43.5
The red-hot Packers travel south to face the NFC’s top-seeded Falcons on Saturday night. This is a rematch of Week 12, when Atlanta edged Green Bay 20-17 at home.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers earned his first career playoff win last Sunday when his team upset the Eagles 21-16. Rodgers threw for 180 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He connected with nine different receivers and seven of those were targeted more than once. That gives Rodgers 603 passing yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in two career playoff games. The big star for Green Bay last week was rookie RB James Starks who set a franchise rookie playoff record with 123 rushing yards.
Matt Ryan makes his second playoff start, and first at home where he is 20-2 as a starter. In his 2008 rookie season, Ryan had a disappointing postseason debut, throwing for 199 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT in a 30-24 loss at Arizona. This year, Ryan has been stellar, throwing for 3,705 yards, 28 TD and just 9 INT. WR Roddy White has 115 catches for 1,389 yards and 10 TD, while TE Tony Gonzalez has caught 70 balls for 656 yards and six scores. All three players will have to perform at the top of their game against the Packers’ fifth-best pass defense in the league (194 YPG). Atlanta also boasts a top-notch running game with Michael Turner who has rumbled for 1,371 yards and 12 touchdowns. He should find some holes in a Green Bay rushing defense allowing 115 YPG (18th in league).
Ravens vs. Bengals Betting Preview2010-09-17Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 40
In NFL Week 1, home dogs covered the point spread in five of the eight games. Additionally, all five of the covers were also outright victories. Can the Bengals keep this tend going?
Two top-notch defenses lock horns in this AFC North clash on Sunday. Both teams allowed just 301 yards per game last year, with the Ravens ranking third in the NFL and the Bengals right behind them in the fourth slot. Baltimore was said to have major holes to fill in its secondary with safety Ed Reed out six weeks and CB Domonique Foxworth out for the season with a torn ACL. But the Ravens defense was dominant Monday night in holding the Jets to 176 yards, including just 60 through the air. The imminent returns of talented CB Lardarius Webb and massive rookie DT Terrence Cody will make this defense even more formidable.
The offense will need to step up its game though. RB Ray Rice was held to 43 yards on 21 carries against an excellent Jets defense, but WR Anquan Boldin had a huge Ravens debut with seven catches for 110 yards. Although he’s nursing a thigh injury, Boldin is expected to play Sunday.
The Bengals defensive unit did not play as poorly as the 38 points allowed to New England would indicate, considering the Patriots scored on a kick return and interception return. But Cincy still allowed Tom Brady to throw for 258 passing yards and three scores. Despite the defensive woes, QB Carson Palmer was able to incorporate a slew of players into the offensive act, most notably Chad Ochocinco (12 rec, 159 yds, TD). The Bengals also received nice performances from 2nd-year pro Bernard Scott, rookie WR Jordan Shipley (5 rec, 82 yds) and rookie TE Jermaine Gresham (six catches, TD). Scott gained 50 yards on just nine touches (six rushes, three catches) and could be a big factor on Sunday if RB Cedric Benson (15 rush, 43 yds, lost fumble) isn’t fully healed from his shoulder injury. Benson ran wild on the Ravens last season with 237 yards on 61 carries in the two contests.
The Bengals are 7-3 (SU and ATS) against the Ravens since 2005, including two physical wins in 2009. Cincy won 17-14 in Baltimore, then completed the sweep with a 17-7 home victory.
Despite that, a key betting trend found at Sportsbook.com states that there is better value in betting against the Bengals:
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(41-10 since 1983.) (80.4%, +30 units. Rating = 4*).
NFL: TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2009-11-24Houston will have had 15 days off to either ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, or to prepare to make its first franchise run toward the postseason. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have installed the well-rested Texans as 4-point favorites, with a total of 48. Of course, there will be a whole host of other wagering options, including in-game’s and props, that are open to players every Monday night. Visit the LIVE ODDS page for the latest.
How the Texans come out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much they’ve grown. They have won two straight vs. Tennessee, but only by a combined 4 points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU & ATS in the L4 meetings. Tennessee is looking for its fourth straight win and ironically, as bad as they started in ’09 with six straight losses, a win here by the Titans and only one game will separate the teams. HC Jeff Fisher’s club is just 1-5 SU & ATS in its L6 divisional games though, formerly a strong suit. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in HOUSTON post-bye week games since '03.
Two weeks after the Texans were passed silly by Peyton Manning in a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis, their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessee’s Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.
Prior to their bye, the Texans saw Manning throw 25 passes within 15 minutes—the most in an opening quarter since 1991—and 50 times for the game but they rallied from a 13-point deficit and took the lead on the first snap of the fourth. Joseph Addai’s touchdown run put the Colts back in front for good and they moved three-and-a-half games ahead of Houston when Kris Brown’s potential game-tying 42-yard field-goal attempt at the gun sailed wide left.
Despite the missed opportunity to keep the AFC South perch in sight, the Texans are still over .500 (5-4) and couldn’t have asked for a better time to recharge the batteries for a stretch run that begins against a suddenly lively Tennessee squad on Monday night. The Titans, spiraling out of control in October with six losses in as many games, have captured three in a row in November with Vince Young at quarterback.
Young’s leapfrogging of Collins on the depth chart was the vision of owner Bud Adams, who during the team’s bye after a 59-0 loss in New England urged head coach Jeff Fisher to turn the offensive keys over to the former first-round pick. In three starts, Young has been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception).
Houston’s ground attack changed legs recently as slippery hands cost Steve Slaton the feature back job—at least for the interim. Ryan Moats was promoted early in the team’s Week 9 game in Buffalo after Slaton fumbled, and Moats responded with 126 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win. Against Indianapolis, Moats had merely 38 yards on 16 carries along with a costly fumble and Slaton (six carries, 17 yards) had the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.
PREDICTION
Everyone who was kicking dirt on the Titans a month ago should have a new level of respect for Fisher, who rolled with the hand he was dealt by Adams. With the nation watching this week, expect them to give the Texans all they can handle. HOUSTON 24, TENNESSEE 20
NFLPS: Unusually strong info for NFLX contest2009-08-14Saturday’s NFL exhibition board of six games may be just a portion of the first full week of action for 2009, but there is one game that stands out in terms of unusually strong betting information available. When the Buccaneers and Titans get together in Tennessee, the bettor will have a host of powerful tidbits to choose from. Read on for more details about this game plus some other handicapping notes for the Saturday card.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee
This game will mark Raheem Morris’ debut as Head Coach for Tampa Bay. The 32-year-old, who was an assistant coach with the Buccaneers for six of the past seven seasons, was a surprising hire after Jon Gruden was fired this past January. He is the youngest current head coach in the NFL.
Morris’ major challenges for the new staff will be picking a capable quarterback from a three-man group including holdover Luke McCown, free agent acquisition Byron Leftwich, and first-round rookie Josh Freeman from Kansas State. As of presstime, McCown was expected to start Saturday's game, with Leftwich and Freeman following him in the lineup.
Elsewhere, the Bucs will be trying to work in a couple of other high-profile offseason acquisitions - running back Derrick Ward and tight end Kellen Winslow.
In addition to Morris, new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski and defensive coordinator Jim Bates will be making their Bucs debuts.
The Titans, meanwhile, will be hoping to build on the success of their 21-18 win over the Bills in this past Sunday's Hall of Fame Game. By now, you’ve probably heard the stories from that game and how the Tennessee punter ran out of the back of the end zone with no time left to force a push on the pointspread. Anyone who watched or wagered on that game was quickly reminded of how exciting betting football can be.
Quarterback Kerry Collins was sharp in the win, while Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey were adequate in relief.
As indicated earlier, there are several key bits of information that could help bettors correctly find the winner of this contest.
* First, Tampa Bay has won six of its seven all-time preseason meetings with Tennessee, including a 20-17 overtime triumph in the last such matchup, prior to the 2005 season.
* Second, the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 22-12 outright win by the Buccaneers. This is obviously a large enough margin to grant Tampa an EDGE STAR on the section. They are projected to outgain the Titans 302-244.
* Third, with the pointspread having moved from Titans -4 at open, to Titans -3.5 at presstime, past games with similar line movements resulted in 12 road underdog covers, 4 home favorite covers. Again, an edge for the Bucs.
* Fourth, again related to the line move, bettors have been very sharp with the Buccaneers over the last two seasons, wagering correctly in eight straight games in the preseason. This week, we are assuming they are favoring Tampa Bay since the line moved that way.
* Fifth, on the Money Line, there is a strong StatFox Super Situation indicating to back the Buccaneers in an upset: Play Against - Any team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (25-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +18 units. Rating = 2*)
If that’s not enough reason to back Tampa Bay yet, know that there are a few more key items that you can find for yourself on the FREE FoxSheet for this week.
Now, on to the rest of Saturday’s games…In other action across the league, watch out for these key tidbits:
Atlanta at Detroit
- Bettors seem to love Detroit in this game, moving the line from a pick em’ at open, to Lions by 3 at last check. This comes despite Atlanta having covered the last three head-to-head meetings. Since 2000, when bettors have moved a line towards the home team, visitors are 25-16-1 in the first full week of the preseason prior to Thursday’s games.
Chicago at Buffalo
- The Bears are on a prolonged slide of 8-14 ATS in preseason games. This will be the first appearance for new quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bills will be playing their second exhibition game of the new campaign and are just 1-5 ATS at home under Dick Jauron.
Houston at Kansas City
- The Chiefs debut both head coach Todd Haley and quarterback Matt Cassell when they host Houston on Saturday. When matched with the high-powered Texans’ offense, oddsmakers seem to believe this game has scoring potential, as it boasts the week’s highest posted total. However, this FoxSheets System indicates an UNDER is the way to go…Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (HOUSTON) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*)
Cleveland at Green Bay
- The Packers’ annual team scrimmage was rained out last week, so this will be the team’s first chance to play in front of a packed house. HC Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams are just 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in the preseason. For Cleveland, Eric Mangini makes his Browns debut and brings with him a 5-1 ATS in road preseason affairs while with the Jets.
Seattle at San Diego
- Seattle has been on a roll in preseason games of recent years, going 7-1 ATS over the past two seasons. However, those were Mike Holmgren-led teams. This year’s club is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Chargers were 3-1 SU & ATS in the exhibition season of ’08, and scored 49 points in two home games. This will be the fifth time in the last six seasons that these teams have met in San Diego. The series is split 2-2 SU in that span, but Seattle owns a 3-1 ATS edge.
NFL - New York Giants at Buffalo (1:00 PM ET – FOX)2007-12-21Leave it to a Tom Coughlin coached team to make things difficult in the latter part of any season. The Giants have seemingly had the top NFC wildcard spot wrapped up for weeks, but a home loss to Washington and a pair of difficult remaining games have put that in question. Their trip to Buffalo opens back-to-back games vs. the AFC East.
Las Vegas sportsbooks installed the Bills as a 1-1/2 point opening favorite, which has since flipped to the Giants minus-3, with the hosts having been eliminated from playoff contention. New York has seemingly been much more comfortable on the road, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in ’07. The Bills have been stellar hosts though, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS. Plus, HC Dick Jauron’s teams have gone 13-1 ATS when hosting out-of-conference foes.
The Giants are quickly becoming the very model they had hoped to avoid after last season’s debacle. Early in the year the praise for QB Eli Manning came fast and furious, and now those chants have turned into criticism. The offense has always struggled with turnovers and a lack of discipline and those shortcomings have now come home to roost. Meanwhile the defense is may keep teams in danger in seeking yardage production, but the failures to stop scoring persist.
The Bills will finish on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, but this season can only be viewed as one of growth and progress. Buffalo was expected to struggle as one of the worst in the game, but what was labeled as the reason for low expectation, namely the rise of youth to starting positions, has become a true asset to a team in need of enthusiasm and heart to compete with teams better equipped for success.
Keys to the Game
The Giants are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS this year on the road, making their final journey of the regular season. New York’s offense has been lagging; nonetheless, they have found ways to win. This might benefit Buffalo who is 22-9 ATS when they allow only 5.5 to 6 net passing yards per attempt. If coach Dick Jauron has made one mistake, it has been staying with J.P. Losman too long. Trent Edwards has had much better grasp of the offense. The Giants are 7-0 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points, winning by almost 10 points per game.
Trends
~ N.Y. Giants are 19-37 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards a game.
~ Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
StatFox Edge – Giants cover
