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NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-29

The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.

This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.

The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.

The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.

In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.

The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.

The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.

Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.

The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.

Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.

The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.

Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.

NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22

Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.

The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.

The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.

The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.

Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.

Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5

NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

NFL: NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-15

The NFL’s version of the “Final Four” will be set following the last playoff matchup of the weekend from San Diego, where the red-hot Chargers will entertain the almost-as-hot Jets. The hosts opened as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but cooler heads have since prevailed and the pointspread now reads San Diego -7. That price seems to have done its job of balancing the betting action, as the BETTING TRENDS page shows 51% of players supporting the favorites, and 49% on the side of the dogs.

The Jets won their playoff game at Cincinnati with the same recipe that has defined their season, controlling the offensive line of scrimmage and dominant defense. It will take that and more to pull a second straight upset at San Diego. The Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. The Jets were held below that mark on seven occasions, thus will be looking to keep the scoring down on Sunday. HC Norv Turner owns a 9-2 ATS mark as home chalk of 7.5-14 points in his stay at San Diego. New York is 6-3 SU & ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the ’05 wildcard round, 20-17.

Of the four teams to earn a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, it can be argued none is more deserving than San Diego. The Chargers, winners of four straight AFC West titles, take an 11-game win streak into Sunday’s divisional round playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.

Gang Green earned this cross-country trip with a 24-14 victory in Cincinnati, marking its second win over the Bengals in six days. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (12-for-15, 182 yards, one touchdown) and rookie running back Shonn Greene (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) starred for rookie head coach Rex Ryan, who praised the efforts of kicker/punter Jay Feely (one field goal, three extra points, three punts inside the 20) in his post-game news conference.

No disrespect to the Bengals, but the road for the Jets gets a lot tougher now.
Head coach Norv Turner’s team hasn’t been saddled with a loss since Oct. 19 when it came up short at home on Monday night against Denver and fell three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos. Six days later, the Chargers spanked Kansas City by 30 in Arrowhead and were well on their way.

San Diego is 3-3 in the playoffs over the last three seasons with an appearance in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and is as talented as any of the remaining clubs.
Is it time for Turner and Philip Rivers to get over the hump? There isn’t much more for Rivers to do except win a ring. Since taking the reins of San Diego’s offense from Drew Brees in 2006, he’s passed for an average of 3,700 yards per season with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 105-to-44. He’s facing a New York defense that ranked atop the league in passing yards (153.7 per game) and passing scores allowed (eight) and held Cincinnati to 110 net yards passing in the last two weeks.

The key matchups to watch are Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis against Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and New York’s ground attack against San Diego’s shaky—20th-ranked—run defense. Jackson has a six-inch height advantage on Revis, but he sat out the regular-season finale against Washington with a sore Achilles’ and will have a tough time winning the duel at less than 100 percent.

PREDICTION: The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every regular-season game and averaged 30 during the current winning streak. Turner doesn’t have the best January resume, but there’s no debating which of these teams has more horses in the barn. Throw in some jetlag and Sanchez & Co. really have their work cut out.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 13

NFL: DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
2010-01-15

Earlier in the season, Minnesota arguably was the NFL’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com installed the host Vikings as 3-point favorites, but early returns forced them to drop that to minus-2.5. Interestingly, the OVER 45.5 on this contest was getting the most support (82%) from bettors at presstime of any other Divisional Playoff betting option.

Minnesota, who hasn’t won a playoff game since ’04, finished 12-4 but was just 2-3 SU & ATS in the L5 games. However, the Vikings can boast about the fact that they were 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home while winning by 17.2 PPG. Dallas has won its L4 games while holding opponents to just 31 total points. The Cowboys, who snapped a 13-year playoff winless stretch last weekend, have been dominant in holding opponents to just 54.8 YPG rushing in the L5. Minnesota has taken five of the L6 h2h meetings between these teams SU & ATS, dating back to ’98.

The piano and the monkey, heck the gorilla, has been thrown off of Tony Romo’s back, as consecutive victories over Philadelphia have given Dallas not only the NFC East title, but also the franchise’s first playoff victory since 1996.

The Cowboys routed the Eagles, 34-14, last Saturday behind yet another dominating defensive performance that rattled Donovan McNabb and didn’t allow him to complete a pass until 1:50 was left in the second quarter. By that time, the Eagles already trailed by 17 points.

As much as Romo has been the catalyst on offense, throwing for 2,103 yards and 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions during his last seven games, the defense has played an even bigger role. On top of ending the regular season with back-to-back shutouts, Dallas’ four-game winning streak has been highlighted by 15 sacks and eight turnovers, and the defense has allowed a total of 201 yards rushing and 31 points.

Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, among the best running backs in the NFL, has almost become an afterthought as the Vikings evolved into a pass-oriented team, failing to crack the 100-yard barrier in his last seven games and netting less than 15 carries in three of them.

The Minnesota defense hasn’t been quite so stout down the stretch, despite its lofty standing among the rest of the NFL teams. Ranked No. 6 overall, Minnesota’s defense stumbled during its 2-3 finish over the final five games, allowing Cedric Benson and Jonathan Stewart to run for 205 yards and a score on 41 carries; Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, who led the NFL with 26 interceptions, threw a season-high four touchdowns in a Week 16 overtime win.

No current quarterback has as much playoff experience as Brett Favre, whose 22 career starts are just one behind Joe Montana. Despite the experience, however, the results haven’t been all glory. Favre has posted an overall mark of just 12-10 that includes losses in six of his last nine appearances.

The Cowboys and Vikings have met six times in the postseason, most recently in 1999, when Minnesota won 27-10 at home in the wild-card round. Dallas has won four of the six playoff battles overall.

PREDICTION: HC Brad Childress’ team is built for the postseason, and is capable of making a run to Miami. They run the ball and pass it equally effectively, have perhaps the best offensive line in football, and are able to get after the passer on defense. Don’t underestimate them by only looking too much at what Dallas has done the last four weeks. MINNESOTA 30, DALLAS 24