February 2012 NFL Events
NFL News
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-6) at ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3)
2011-01-14
Sportsbook.com Line/Total: Atlanta -2.5 & 43.5
The red-hot Packers travel south to face the NFC’s top-seeded Falcons on Saturday night. This is a rematch of Week 12, when Atlanta edged Green Bay 20-17 at home.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers earned his first career playoff win last Sunday when his team upset the Eagles 21-16. Rodgers threw for 180 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He connected with nine different receivers and seven of those were targeted more than once. That gives Rodgers 603 passing yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in two career playoff games. The big star for Green Bay last week was rookie RB James Starks who set a franchise rookie playoff record with 123 rushing yards.
Matt Ryan makes his second playoff start, and first at home where he is 20-2 as a starter. In his 2008 rookie season, Ryan had a disappointing postseason debut, throwing for 199 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT in a 30-24 loss at Arizona. This year, Ryan has been stellar, throwing for 3,705 yards, 28 TD and just 9 INT. WR Roddy White has 115 catches for 1,389 yards and 10 TD, while TE Tony Gonzalez has caught 70 balls for 656 yards and six scores. All three players will have to perform at the top of their game against the Packers’ fifth-best pass defense in the league (194 YPG). Atlanta also boasts a top-notch running game with Michael Turner who has rumbled for 1,371 yards and 12 touchdowns. He should find some holes in a Green Bay rushing defense allowing 115 YPG (18th in league).
Ravens vs. Bengals Betting Preview2010-09-17Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 40
In NFL Week 1, home dogs covered the point spread in five of the eight games. Additionally, all five of the covers were also outright victories. Can the Bengals keep this tend going?
Two top-notch defenses lock horns in this AFC North clash on Sunday. Both teams allowed just 301 yards per game last year, with the Ravens ranking third in the NFL and the Bengals right behind them in the fourth slot. Baltimore was said to have major holes to fill in its secondary with safety Ed Reed out six weeks and CB Domonique Foxworth out for the season with a torn ACL. But the Ravens defense was dominant Monday night in holding the Jets to 176 yards, including just 60 through the air. The imminent returns of talented CB Lardarius Webb and massive rookie DT Terrence Cody will make this defense even more formidable.
The offense will need to step up its game though. RB Ray Rice was held to 43 yards on 21 carries against an excellent Jets defense, but WR Anquan Boldin had a huge Ravens debut with seven catches for 110 yards. Although he’s nursing a thigh injury, Boldin is expected to play Sunday.
The Bengals defensive unit did not play as poorly as the 38 points allowed to New England would indicate, considering the Patriots scored on a kick return and interception return. But Cincy still allowed Tom Brady to throw for 258 passing yards and three scores. Despite the defensive woes, QB Carson Palmer was able to incorporate a slew of players into the offensive act, most notably Chad Ochocinco (12 rec, 159 yds, TD). The Bengals also received nice performances from 2nd-year pro Bernard Scott, rookie WR Jordan Shipley (5 rec, 82 yds) and rookie TE Jermaine Gresham (six catches, TD). Scott gained 50 yards on just nine touches (six rushes, three catches) and could be a big factor on Sunday if RB Cedric Benson (15 rush, 43 yds, lost fumble) isn’t fully healed from his shoulder injury. Benson ran wild on the Ravens last season with 237 yards on 61 carries in the two contests.
The Bengals are 7-3 (SU and ATS) against the Ravens since 2005, including two physical wins in 2009. Cincy won 17-14 in Baltimore, then completed the sweep with a 17-7 home victory.
Despite that, a key betting trend found at Sportsbook.com states that there is better value in betting against the Bengals:
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(41-10 since 1983.) (80.4%, +30 units. Rating = 4*).
Biggest NFL Turnarounds This Season2010-06-07Disappointing was not a fitting enough word to describe some of the sad performance we saw from a few NFL teams last season. We saw everything from teams that simply had bad luck to teams that were just plain awful. There is always next year, though, and here are three teams to keep your eye on for a big turnaround. As an NFL bettor knowing who is on the rise is key to NFL betting success.
- The Oakland Raiders: Someone must have locked Al Davis in a closet on draft day. Instead of the usual athlete first mentally Davis takes to drafting, the Raiders drafted players this season that can actually play football. They unloaded toxic JaMarcus Russell for a sleeker Jason Campbell. No, Campbell is not exactly the NFL version of prime rib, but anything is better when you have had the spam that is JaMarcus Russell the last three years. Look for the Raiders to be much stronger on both sides of the ball and be a handful for most of the teams on their schedule.
- The Seattle Seahawks: Say what you want about Pete Carroll jumping ship at USC, but I will be darned if he has not made some impressive moves since taking the helm in Seattle. Carroll had a fantastic draft day. He picked up a top rated offensive tackle, a top flight receiver, and a backup quarterback. His most impressive move of all, however, seemed to be the acquisition of Leon Washington from the Jets. Washington had a fantastic run in the playoffs for New York last season. If he can carry that over into the regular season for the Seahawks, Seattle will more than solve their running back issues, and Pete Carroll will look like even more a genius than he did on draft day.
- The Tennessee Titans: Despite a five-hundred season, the Titans’ campaign last year was a complete failure. By losing their first six games, they almost completely eliminated themselves from any sort of last second playoff miracle. They did, however, get Vince Young back in a groove and are hoping that bleeds over into this season. With the selection of the best pass rusher in the draft as their number one pick, look for the Titans to still be strong defensively. The whole season, however, hinges on whether Vince Young will take it to the next level or regress back to his old form.
All of these teams look promising on paper. Too bad the games are played on field. We will just have to wait and see if these teams can live up to their potential or will continue with their losing ways. As an NFL bettor are you betting on these teams? Head over the www.sportsbook.com the home of NFL betting.
NFLPS: Unusually strong info for NFLX contest2009-08-14Saturday’s NFL exhibition board of six games may be just a portion of the first full week of action for 2009, but there is one game that stands out in terms of unusually strong betting information available. When the Buccaneers and Titans get together in Tennessee, the bettor will have a host of powerful tidbits to choose from. Read on for more details about this game plus some other handicapping notes for the Saturday card.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee
This game will mark Raheem Morris’ debut as Head Coach for Tampa Bay. The 32-year-old, who was an assistant coach with the Buccaneers for six of the past seven seasons, was a surprising hire after Jon Gruden was fired this past January. He is the youngest current head coach in the NFL.
Morris’ major challenges for the new staff will be picking a capable quarterback from a three-man group including holdover Luke McCown, free agent acquisition Byron Leftwich, and first-round rookie Josh Freeman from Kansas State. As of presstime, McCown was expected to start Saturday's game, with Leftwich and Freeman following him in the lineup.
Elsewhere, the Bucs will be trying to work in a couple of other high-profile offseason acquisitions - running back Derrick Ward and tight end Kellen Winslow.
In addition to Morris, new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski and defensive coordinator Jim Bates will be making their Bucs debuts.
The Titans, meanwhile, will be hoping to build on the success of their 21-18 win over the Bills in this past Sunday's Hall of Fame Game. By now, you’ve probably heard the stories from that game and how the Tennessee punter ran out of the back of the end zone with no time left to force a push on the pointspread. Anyone who watched or wagered on that game was quickly reminded of how exciting betting football can be.
Quarterback Kerry Collins was sharp in the win, while Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey were adequate in relief.
As indicated earlier, there are several key bits of information that could help bettors correctly find the winner of this contest.
* First, Tampa Bay has won six of its seven all-time preseason meetings with Tennessee, including a 20-17 overtime triumph in the last such matchup, prior to the 2005 season.
* Second, the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 22-12 outright win by the Buccaneers. This is obviously a large enough margin to grant Tampa an EDGE STAR on the section. They are projected to outgain the Titans 302-244.
* Third, with the pointspread having moved from Titans -4 at open, to Titans -3.5 at presstime, past games with similar line movements resulted in 12 road underdog covers, 4 home favorite covers. Again, an edge for the Bucs.
* Fourth, again related to the line move, bettors have been very sharp with the Buccaneers over the last two seasons, wagering correctly in eight straight games in the preseason. This week, we are assuming they are favoring Tampa Bay since the line moved that way.
* Fifth, on the Money Line, there is a strong StatFox Super Situation indicating to back the Buccaneers in an upset: Play Against - Any team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (25-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +18 units. Rating = 2*)
If that’s not enough reason to back Tampa Bay yet, know that there are a few more key items that you can find for yourself on the FREE FoxSheet for this week.
Now, on to the rest of Saturday’s games…In other action across the league, watch out for these key tidbits:
Atlanta at Detroit
- Bettors seem to love Detroit in this game, moving the line from a pick em’ at open, to Lions by 3 at last check. This comes despite Atlanta having covered the last three head-to-head meetings. Since 2000, when bettors have moved a line towards the home team, visitors are 25-16-1 in the first full week of the preseason prior to Thursday’s games.
Chicago at Buffalo
- The Bears are on a prolonged slide of 8-14 ATS in preseason games. This will be the first appearance for new quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bills will be playing their second exhibition game of the new campaign and are just 1-5 ATS at home under Dick Jauron.
Houston at Kansas City
- The Chiefs debut both head coach Todd Haley and quarterback Matt Cassell when they host Houston on Saturday. When matched with the high-powered Texans’ offense, oddsmakers seem to believe this game has scoring potential, as it boasts the week’s highest posted total. However, this FoxSheets System indicates an UNDER is the way to go…Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (HOUSTON) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*)
Cleveland at Green Bay
- The Packers’ annual team scrimmage was rained out last week, so this will be the team’s first chance to play in front of a packed house. HC Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams are just 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in the preseason. For Cleveland, Eric Mangini makes his Browns debut and brings with him a 5-1 ATS in road preseason affairs while with the Jets.
Seattle at San Diego
- Seattle has been on a roll in preseason games of recent years, going 7-1 ATS over the past two seasons. However, those were Mike Holmgren-led teams. This year’s club is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Chargers were 3-1 SU & ATS in the exhibition season of ’08, and scored 49 points in two home games. This will be the fifth time in the last six seasons that these teams have met in San Diego. The series is split 2-2 SU in that span, but Seattle owns a 3-1 ATS edge.
NFL: Jacksonville at Houston (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2008-12-02ESPN’s Monday night audience will be “treated” to a game between two teams with little left to do in ’08 but play out the string. Both Houston & Jacksonville have missed expectations and are relegated to the spoiler role. Of course, they won’t be able to do that against one another here. The Texas are the 3-point home favorite and are looking to extend a run of success vs. the Jaguars.
The Jaguars’ woes have been hard to put a finger on. Houston’s problems have been namely on the defensive side of the ball, in almost every stat and facet. On offense, the Texans gain over 6.0 yards per play. However, HC Jack Del Rio’s teams are 8-1 ATS vs. good offenses averaging >=5.65 YPP in the second half of seasons. Houston has held a firm edge on Jacksonville in the head-to-head series, going 7-6 SU & 10-3 ATS all-time, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS at home.
In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.
Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.
The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn).
The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.
Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September.
Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns.
Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced.
Garrard has failed to continue the success he had in 2007 and has only nine touchdown passes through 12 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.
PREDICTION: Like the nation’s mortgage system, the bottom has been pulled out from under the Jaguars’ once promising season and Del Rio is feeling the heat. Houston has never really been able to get any real traction, but a Monday night crowd may be able to get it over the hump in this spot. HOUSTON 20, JACKSONVILLE 17
After the ugly ’07 season for the Ravens, ESPN surely couldn’t have hoped their Monday night showdown between Baltimore and Pittsburgh would be for the AFC North Division lead. However2008-09-30After the ugly ’07 season for the Ravens, ESPN surely couldn’t have hoped their Monday night showdown between Baltimore and Pittsburgh would be for the AFC North Division lead. However, with the Ravens 2-0 and the Steelers 2-1, suddenly the winner of this game assumes control of the division. Host Pittsburgh is the odds-on-favorite by both oddsmakers, laying 6-1/2 points, and the betting public, getting 60%-plus support.
If history is any indication, it will be Pittsburgh, since the home team in this head-to-head series is on a run of 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the L9 games. For HC John Harbaugh, this will be a first-ever road contest, and it couldn’t come at a tougher place for his team. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS at home under Mike Tomlin, and this Ravens’ club lost all eight games ATS on the road in ‘07. For those interested in totals, Baltimore has now gone over in seven of its L9 games.
These teams don't like one another, and that's reason enough for even the casual fan to tune in Sunday night when Baltimore goes to Pittsburgh for a battle of the past two AFC North champions.
Both teams come off intense-filled affairs. The Ravens, in action for the first time since kickoff weekend, improved to 2-0 with a 28-10 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Steelers were busy suffering their first setback, 15-6, in Philadelphia.
The atmosphere at Heinz Field will be nothing Baltimore rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has experienced. His first start on the road was supposed to happen in Week 2, but Hurricane Ike had other plans and damaged Reliant Stadium in Houston to the point where the Ravens-Texans game was moved to Nov. 9. So now he'll face a defense that allowed only 104 total yards in dismantling the Ravens in last year's meeting, 38-7.
Like he did in the opener against Cincinnati, Flacco had a roller-coaster game versus the Browns. What helped his cause was Cleveland's inability to solidify a pass rush. Despite ample time to operate, the first-round pick out of Delaware went 13-for-19 for 129 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions. He was bailed out by a Baltimore defense that forced four turnovers and recorded five sacks.
It probably won't take long for Pittsburgh's defense to test Flacco's mettle. Blitzing linebackers and cornerbacks could be commonplace in the first half, as the Steelers try to set the tone and show the young quarterback what he can expect in this rivalry. The Ravens are likely to employ a double tight-end set with Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox in an attempt to help Flacco weather the early storm.
The Steelers, who have allowed 38 points, briefly knocked Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb out of last week's contest, picked off Cleveland's Derek Anderson twice in Week 2 and Houston's Matt Schaub twice in Week 1. But Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger left the loss to the Eagles late in the fourth quarter with a wrist injury after throwing his first interception of the year.
Baltimore's defense had similar success against Anderson, intercepting him three times including Ed Reed's 32-yard touchdown return in the third quarter.
Including playoffs, the Steelers lead the all-time series by a 15-10 margin.But they haven't swept the Ravens since 2002.
PREDICTION
This should be a defensive slugfest, and the odds are stacked high against Flacco doing enough to help the Ravens pull off the upset. The Steelers weren't happy with their last prime-time performance, even though the result was a win, and they won't be holding anything back.
PITTSBURGH 21, BALTIMORE 10
NFL - New York Giants at Buffalo (1:00 PM ET – FOX)2007-12-21Leave it to a Tom Coughlin coached team to make things difficult in the latter part of any season. The Giants have seemingly had the top NFC wildcard spot wrapped up for weeks, but a home loss to Washington and a pair of difficult remaining games have put that in question. Their trip to Buffalo opens back-to-back games vs. the AFC East.
Las Vegas sportsbooks installed the Bills as a 1-1/2 point opening favorite, which has since flipped to the Giants minus-3, with the hosts having been eliminated from playoff contention. New York has seemingly been much more comfortable on the road, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in ’07. The Bills have been stellar hosts though, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS. Plus, HC Dick Jauron’s teams have gone 13-1 ATS when hosting out-of-conference foes.
The Giants are quickly becoming the very model they had hoped to avoid after last season’s debacle. Early in the year the praise for QB Eli Manning came fast and furious, and now those chants have turned into criticism. The offense has always struggled with turnovers and a lack of discipline and those shortcomings have now come home to roost. Meanwhile the defense is may keep teams in danger in seeking yardage production, but the failures to stop scoring persist.
The Bills will finish on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, but this season can only be viewed as one of growth and progress. Buffalo was expected to struggle as one of the worst in the game, but what was labeled as the reason for low expectation, namely the rise of youth to starting positions, has become a true asset to a team in need of enthusiasm and heart to compete with teams better equipped for success.
Keys to the Game
The Giants are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS this year on the road, making their final journey of the regular season. New York’s offense has been lagging; nonetheless, they have found ways to win. This might benefit Buffalo who is 22-9 ATS when they allow only 5.5 to 6 net passing yards per attempt. If coach Dick Jauron has made one mistake, it has been staying with J.P. Losman too long. Trent Edwards has had much better grasp of the offense. The Giants are 7-0 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points, winning by almost 10 points per game.
Trends
~ N.Y. Giants are 19-37 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards a game.
~ Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
StatFox Edge – Giants cover
