NFLPS: Unusually strong info for NFLX contest
2009-08-14
Saturday’s NFL exhibition board of six games may be just a portion of the first full week of action for 2009, but there is one game that stands out in terms of unusually strong betting information available. When the Buccaneers and Titans get together in Tennessee, the bettor will have a host of powerful tidbits to choose from. Read on for more details about this game plus some other handicapping notes for the Saturday card.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee
This game will mark Raheem Morris’ debut as Head Coach for Tampa Bay. The 32-year-old, who was an assistant coach with the Buccaneers for six of the past seven seasons, was a surprising hire after Jon Gruden was fired this past January. He is the youngest current head coach in the NFL.
Morris’ major challenges for the new staff will be picking a capable quarterback from a three-man group including holdover Luke McCown, free agent acquisition Byron Leftwich, and first-round rookie Josh Freeman from Kansas State. As of presstime, McCown was expected to start Saturday's game, with Leftwich and Freeman following him in the lineup.
Elsewhere, the Bucs will be trying to work in a couple of other high-profile offseason acquisitions - running back Derrick Ward and tight end Kellen Winslow.
In addition to Morris, new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski and defensive coordinator Jim Bates will be making their Bucs debuts.
The Titans, meanwhile, will be hoping to build on the success of their 21-18 win over the Bills in this past Sunday's Hall of Fame Game. By now, you’ve probably heard the stories from that game and how the Tennessee punter ran out of the back of the end zone with no time left to force a push on the pointspread. Anyone who watched or wagered on that game was quickly reminded of how exciting betting football can be.
Quarterback Kerry Collins was sharp in the win, while Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey were adequate in relief.
As indicated earlier, there are several key bits of information that could help bettors correctly find the winner of this contest.
* First, Tampa Bay has won six of its seven all-time preseason meetings with Tennessee, including a 20-17 overtime triumph in the last such matchup, prior to the 2005 season.
* Second, the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 22-12 outright win by the Buccaneers. This is obviously a large enough margin to grant Tampa an EDGE STAR on the section. They are projected to outgain the Titans 302-244.
* Third, with the pointspread having moved from Titans -4 at open, to Titans -3.5 at presstime, past games with similar line movements resulted in 12 road underdog covers, 4 home favorite covers. Again, an edge for the Bucs.
* Fourth, again related to the line move, bettors have been very sharp with the Buccaneers over the last two seasons, wagering correctly in eight straight games in the preseason. This week, we are assuming they are favoring Tampa Bay since the line moved that way.
* Fifth, on the Money Line, there is a strong StatFox Super Situation indicating to back the Buccaneers in an upset: Play Against - Any team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (25-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +18 units. Rating = 2*)
If that’s not enough reason to back Tampa Bay yet, know that there are a few more key items that you can find for yourself on the FREE FoxSheet for this week.
Now, on to the rest of Saturday’s games…In other action across the league, watch out for these key tidbits:
Atlanta at Detroit
- Bettors seem to love Detroit in this game, moving the line from a pick em’ at open, to Lions by 3 at last check. This comes despite Atlanta having covered the last three head-to-head meetings. Since 2000, when bettors have moved a line towards the home team, visitors are 25-16-1 in the first full week of the preseason prior to Thursday’s games.
Chicago at Buffalo
- The Bears are on a prolonged slide of 8-14 ATS in preseason games. This will be the first appearance for new quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bills will be playing their second exhibition game of the new campaign and are just 1-5 ATS at home under Dick Jauron.
Houston at Kansas City
- The Chiefs debut both head coach Todd Haley and quarterback Matt Cassell when they host Houston on Saturday. When matched with the high-powered Texans’ offense, oddsmakers seem to believe this game has scoring potential, as it boasts the week’s highest posted total. However, this FoxSheets System indicates an UNDER is the way to go…Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (HOUSTON) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*)
Cleveland at Green Bay
- The Packers’ annual team scrimmage was rained out last week, so this will be the team’s first chance to play in front of a packed house. HC Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams are just 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in the preseason. For Cleveland, Eric Mangini makes his Browns debut and brings with him a 5-1 ATS in road preseason affairs while with the Jets.
Seattle at San Diego
- Seattle has been on a roll in preseason games of recent years, going 7-1 ATS over the past two seasons. However, those were Mike Holmgren-led teams. This year’s club is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Chargers were 3-1 SU & ATS in the exhibition season of ’08, and scored 49 points in two home games. This will be the fifth time in the last six seasons that these teams have met in San Diego. The series is split 2-2 SU in that span, but Seattle owns a 3-1 ATS edge.
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